If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/19

? 2/28/20

Up 6/28/19

Intermediate

?- 3/20/20

Dn 3/20/20

?- 3/20/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/25/20

Short term

? 3/26/20

Up 3/26/20

? 3/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Secular bull vs bear market

I think it is best to start with the big picture.  I find in talking to friends about the market that most individuals have no idea how the markets really work.  All they hear about from the media is buy and hold  and stay the course.  I am going to put up some charts that will clearly show that there are times to be a buy and hold investor (secular bull market), and times when it is best to get in and out (secular bear market).  During secular bull markets, stock valuations expand, recessions are infrequent and fairly mild.  During secular bear markets the opposite happens.  Stock valuations contract because recessions are more frequent and more severe.  Lets start with the secular bear market charts.


Clearly buy and hold investors have not done very well for more then a decade now.  We are definitely in a secular bear market.  Lets look at another time period.


Hmm, buy and hold investing did not do much in this era either.  Just for fun, how about one more.


So clearly there are long time periods of little upward motion in the market.  If you are young and have a lot of time left before you need investment money, these time periods can be ridden out.  However, when in retirement or near it, these periods can be very rough.

Lets take a look at the last two secular bull markets.

.
This is the granddaddy of all secular bull markets.  Even the traumatic crash of 1987 is but a blip.  Trying to time in and out of this market left many people behind. 


This secular bull market was clearly not as spectacular as the 80s and 90s.  However, upward progress was made until 1966. 

So here we are today in the midst of a secular bear market.  All the pundits on TV would have you believe the market is only going up from here.  Maybe so, maybe not. 

Part2



6 comments:

Jaxon Oakley said...

I like your thoughts due to your skills.

Jon Sigurdsson said...

Thanks for explanation!
Trading Courses

Phani Kumar said...

Thanks. I am regularly following you. Your posts always contain some good information and your way of explanations is very very good. See marksans pharma news

Sadhana said...

Great Job! Really Thanks for your efforts.
Is this website is only for informational purpose..
How do I trade on the stock market?
Sensex
Sensex

ady said...

Nice Article. Thank you for sharing the informative article with us. Stock Investor provides latest Indian stock market news and Live BSE/NSE Sensex & Nifty updates.Find the relevant updates regarding Buy & Sell....
globus spirits ltd
dalmia bharat share price

Dariya said...

nice information thanks for sharing valuable content with us we also provide great information related to your blog feel free to visit our trading

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.