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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 10/15/20

Up 10/9/20

Up 10/13/20

Short term

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20

? 10/19/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, September 18, 2020

Short term bottom? 9/18

 The market sold off pretty hard this afternoon, but bounced well of the low.


SPX tested the 9/11 low, but closed slightly above it.  Today was the lowest close of the pullback, but it looks like a failed new low pattern (FNL).  Breadth was -63% which is not all that bad.  This sell off is largely big cap tech driven.  If they have finished the selling for the time being, we could get a decent bounce.

The futures dipped below the 9/9 overnight low which had been the lowest point of the current pullback.  They bounced from the area of the 200 SMA.  This is a good place to rally from.

The green count dipped just slightly below the red line (middle panel), but is showing a positive divergence into this lower close.  The bottom panel is also showing a positive divergence.


The VIX is showing a rather large drop since the 9/8 low.  This seems like an extremely large positive divergence.

IWM is showing considerable relative strength the last few days.  In recent weeks IWM and QQQ have been at odds with each other some days.  When one is up, the other is down.  Since I believe today was a short term bottom I decided to be long both small cap and big cap tech.  My theory is if one is down on the open Sunday night the other might be up.  If they are both up so much the better.  If both down, well then my guess the bottom is in might not be correct.  Will the bulls take advantage of this nice looking setup?

Peace and good health to all.  Have a great weekend.

Bob




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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.