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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, May 22, 2020

Slow uptrend 5/22

The market proceeded higher this week as expected last Friday.  The slow uptrend remains in tact, but it is really slow.  SPX closed Friday only 2 points above the Monday close.  The last four days consolidated that move.  It may be ready to try for higher again next week.


SPX is consolidating just below the 100 SMA.  That 200 DMA is not far away.  There might be some sellers in that area. 


The futures show a bounce off the 20 SMA.  This is a good setup going into next week.


The green line is above 50 and the short term indicator is rising.  The bulls are still in control.


The medium and intermediate term indicators are also rising.


Here is a look at the active money managers sentiment index.


The peak so far on this rally came at the end of April.  There was a little bit of selling in May.  At today's close SPX has only gained 43 points since the end of April.  The big guys have been a minor head wind.  This next table is interesting.


Between 4/15 and 4/29 the NAAIM number went from 28 to 78.  That was a period of significant buying.  In other words they did not buy all that much in the early part of the rally.  SPX was 2783 on 4/15.  If SPX drops below that number in the future it could increase the selling pressure as those late April buyers would be under water.  The bullish number at 200 means the most bullish survey respondent was 200% long.  The bearish -50 means the most bearish respondent was 50% short.  With SPX below the 200 DMA being 200% long seems a bit risky.  The 50% bearish number means there could still be some short covering (but probably not a lot) to help push SPX higher if it keeps rising. 

Everything seems to be pointing higher, but upside progress is likely to continue to be slow. 

Have a great Memorial Day weekend.  While freedom may be somewhat restricted at the moment let us not forget all those brave men and women that gave their life for this country!

Peace and good health to all.

Bob

1 comment:

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.