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Monday, April 20, 2020

Update 4/20

It looks like the rally is running out of steam as SPX hits the 50 DMA.

There was another tick distribution signal today.  That makes 3 in the last 6 days with only 1 almost accumulation signal. 

The futures found support at the 20 SMA.  A break of that MA could lead to a pullback to the 50.

The green count has been dwindling over the last several days.  The rally is getting thin.

Bear market rallies often have some kind of consolidation near the highs.  It is rare to do an inverted V top.  However, this situation is unlike any in history.  I view this as purely a technical bounce from a deep oversold condition.  I am not sure how the big money fundamental investors feel about things.  The way the economy gets opened up again is leaving a lot of questions. 

In the short term the market looks like a pullback from the 50 DMA might be in the cards.  The question is whether the buyers show up strongly again if we get a dip.  I don't have a clue.  This is a play by ear situation if there ever was one.


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