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Thursday, April 2, 2020

Update 4/2

Bulls make a stand based on hope for the price of oil.  There was a tick distribution signal despite today's rally.

SPX closed slightly above yesterday's high because of a furious late day rally.  Unfortunately those last hour moves are not very reliable for future direction.  Breadth was +56% which is not especially strong.  It was even slightly negative with 20 minutes to go.

The futures found some support at the 50 SMA.  The rally today ended at the 20 SMA.  Tomorrow should break out above the 20 or below the 50.  In between those lines market moves are just noise.

The tick signal came during an afternoon sell program.  SPX rallied 35 points in the last 20 minutes to get the close above yesterday's high.  Somebody wants the market to go higher.  I don't have a clue how this plays out.  If the bulls come out to play again SPX might test the recent highs and then roll over and test the low.  We will need to see more strength in the days ahead if the market is going to break out above the recent highs.  Closing below yesterday's low should tip the scales to the bears for a retest of the low.

Peace and good health to all.


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