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Friday, March 6, 2020

Update 3/6

Retest of the recent low.

There was another tick distribution signal mid afternoon.  However, the market rallied strongly into the close.  SPX is still oversold short term.  Take a look at the TLT chart.

Bonds have had one crazy run.  This has the look of a volume climax top.  What happens if people decide to take some profits here?  Where might that money go?  With stocks still oversold some of it might find its way there.  How much money that might be I have no idea.

The red count is showing a sizable divergence.  The intermediate indicator is near rock bottom.

The market is set up just about like last Friday.  SPX is oversold, it gapped down today and sold off even more.  Then it rallied into the close and ended back above the open.  With the bonds so extreme it is not out of the question we get a another bounce next week.  The market sure could use one.  I hate to think what happens if we keep going down.


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