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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

?+ 6/30/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

? 6/5/20

? 6/5/20

Up 6/5/20

Sub-Intermediate

?+ 7/6/20

?- 7/7/20

Up 7/2/20

Short term

Up 7/6/20

? 6/11/20

Up 7/2/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, March 13, 2020

Update 3/13

Much better.


The futures were limit up at the open.  The sellers went to work right away and SPX gave up much of the gains before buyers stepped in.  Breath was strong at +86%.  Volume was very good also.  This is the best bounce set up yet.  Will the bulls show up on Monday?

The FED is expected to cut rates on Wed.  I heard some saying 1 point.  I doubt that.  A cut of .25 seems to be what the FED fund futures are saying.  With a lot of bad news already out as far as travel restrictions and event shut downs and closings a rally is possible.  People also expect more testing and an increase in the numbers.  I think it is possible the market has discounted all that we know at the moment.  The ticks showed good buying today which started on central bank moves to support economies around the world.  The market rallied strongly during the president's press conference the last hour of the trading day.  Unless there is a negative shock over the weekend the bulls might be able to get a bounce going on Monday.  A rally into the FED announcement is possible.  I was thinking that yesterday's big crash down could have caused the need for a lot more margin calls again.  However, today's big rally leaves SPX just 30 points below yesterday's close.  A good bounce on Monday should take that threat away.  Maybe next week will be a little better for bulls.

For all March madness fans sad to hear it is cancelled this year.


Peace and good health to all.  Have a great weekend.

Bob

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