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Friday, February 28, 2020

Update 2/28

Happy leap day! 

The market gapped down once again, but this time it closed the day well.  That may have been because the FED's web site posted something that sparked a rally.  The red line which may appears to have acted as support corresponds to the Jan. 2018 high.  New lows flew up to 928.  Quite the oversold market.  The volume increased again.  Given the market rebound this might really be a short term climax this time.

The red count is up to 97 while the intermediate indicator has dropped to 21 (this will keep falling for a few days).  That combination over the last 15 years has always led to a retest of the low.  If we get a multi day bounce it is likely we will see this low again.

With the market this oversold it might grab on to the belief the FED will do something to generate a relief rally.  This is a good setup for a bounce.  If the market starts up on Monday it could keep going for a bit this time.  I would have no idea what happens if the market keeps going down from here.  When a market this oversold can't bounce it can only crash more.

Have a good weekend.  Peace and good health to all.


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