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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

?+ 6/30/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

? 6/5/20

? 6/5/20

Up 6/5/20

Sub-Intermediate

?+ 7/6/20

?- 7/7/20

Up 7/2/20

Short term

Up 7/6/20

? 6/11/20

Up 7/2/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, November 1, 2019

Update 11/1

SPX ends the week at a new high along with COMPX.  The Dow is within spitting distance of its high.



A stronger than expected employment report brought out some buyers today.  New highs were 182.  That is about the same numbers we saw 10/21 and 10/22.  I don't think that number tells us anything about whether this break out will stick or not.  We still have a narrow market until more indexes make new highs.


The green count is above 50, but not overbought.

We still have the same situation as last summer when SPX made a new high.  The weak sister indexes IYT, IWM and XLF are still well below their highs.  XLF is making progress, but IWM and IYT not so much.

The market seems to be discounting the so called phase one deal with China.  If something goes wrong which leads to more tariffs the market probably won't like that.  The poor global economic data has not deterred buyers lately.  Will that change down the road?

I have no idea what happens now.  There are cracks in the market, but they have been there for many months without causing a problem.  I do not see any sign of major buying on the part of money managers.  I think the fate of this rally lies in the hands of retail investors.  I don't have a clue whether they will continue piling in or not.  We will have to wait and see.

Have a great weekend.  Peace.

Bob

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.