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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, October 25, 2019

Update 10/25

SPX testing the all time high.


SPX opened lower, but buyers showed up quickly.  It got fractionally below the all time high before stopping.  Breadth was only +54% which is a bit weak for the size of the move up. 


The futures have been finding support at the 20 SMA.  There is quite a bit of congestion up here in this area.


The green count is above 50 and below overbought.  I don't think this chart tells us much about whether we are going to break out and go higher or not.

SPX is testing the highs, but we still have the same problems we have had for months.  The global economy including the U.S. is still weakening.  The weak sister indexes IWM, IYT, and XLF are still lagging.  There has been no tick accumulation signal signal 7/18.  That is the longest stretch in this entire bull market.  On the positive side we are now moving into the seasonally strongest time of the year.  Will that take the market higher? 

Next week the FED is expected to cut rates again.  The market has sold off after both of the previous cuts.  With it be different this time? 

If the market is going to continue higher I believe the lack of tick signals means it will have to be retail investors doing the bulk of the buying.  I can understand the lack of confidence by money managers.  The economic data points to a synchronized global slowdown.  Until the economy turns around there is risk of a global recession.  The China trade situation is still up in the air.  I have heard the Chinese are asking for relief from the tariffs.  I have not heard any willingness on the U.S. side for that.  Will the so called phase one deal actually happen.  I am a little skeptical, but we will see.  The fate of the market seems to be in the hands of individual investors.  Will they show up and keep pushing the market higher?  Beats me.  We will have to see how the market reacts on this test of the highs.




Have a great weekend.  Peace.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.