If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?- 5/29/20

?- 5/29/20

?+ 5/29/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Daily update 7/16

I see stiff resistance yesterday and today at the highs.


The volatility has really drained out of the market intraday.  That is often a sign of complacency.  Breadth has been negative two days in a row.  Volume was a little elevated today which is a bit of a caution flag in the short term.


The futures ran into a brick wall at 3018 yesterday and today.  They retreated a bit from that this afternoon.


The green count has remained below 50 for several days at the highs here.


The short term lines got a negative crossover today.  More importantly the long term lines have a braided pattern and are rather close to a negative crossover.   That indicates there has been some distribution going on for the last couple of months.  This is slightly weaker than what it was showing at the top last fall.  However, it is similar looking to the May-June period in 2017 which did not lead to any major downside.  The breadth of the market has weakened considerably and that sometimes leads to bigger corrections.  At this point, I would say this is a caution flag that I wanted everybody to be aware of.  This pattern can last for a long time, but it often takes positive news or a big sell off to get investors back into the mood to accumulate stocks again.  Everybody now knows the FED will cut rates at the end of this month so it is a bit curious to see the distribution going on.  That makes me wonder if this earnings season is going to reveal some kind of problem for the market.  I guess we will see as time goes on.

Brick wall resistance like I saw the last two days often needs at least a little pullback to gain enough energy to break through.  A positive news event can also do the trick of course, but those don't happen all that often.  I would not be surprised to see this 3000 level cause a problem for SPX for a few weeks.  There could be some back and forth action while the market decides what to do next.  I will let you know if any significant selling pressure comes into the market.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.