Stock Market Analysis from Traderbob58: Update 6/28

Trend table status

Trend	SP-500	R2000	COMPX
Primary	Up 7/31/20	Up 1/29/21	Up 5/29/20
Intermediate	Up 10/2/20	?+ 4/23/20	?+ 4/30/21
Sub-Intermediate	Up 3/29/21	? 4/5/21	?- 5/10/21
Short term	Up 4/1/21	Dn 5/10/21	Dn 5/4/21

Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, June 28, 2019

Update 6/28

There was a bit of quarter end activity which included some Russell index rebalancing. That elevated the volume late in the day.

I believe there was some optimism about the G20 meeting reflected in the market today. Breadth was +69%. New highs were 158. New lows dropped down to 20.

The futures closed about 10 points above the 4 PM close. I would assume that was probably something to do with the G20 meeting.

The green line crossed below the red line yesterday and back above today. That is a bounce cross and keeps the bulls in control for now.

In the short term the fate of the current rally rests in the hands of what happens at the G20 meeting. Anything that does not lead to a commitment to put more tariffs on is probably ok. The best we can hope for would be a delay in new tariffs and more talks scheduled.

The last two days have seen big moves in the weak sister indexes (IYT, IWM, and XLF). That is a positive. It remains to be seen if that buying is for real or just an oversold bounce. SPX still has to prove it really wants to go higher rather than just fool around up here. I think the jury is still out on whether we continue higher in a significant manner or not.