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Friday, June 7, 2019

Daily update 6/7

Worse than expected unemployment data (remember bad data is good for a rate cut) drove today's buying.

SPX crossed above the 50 SMA.  Breadth was +71%.  New highs spiked up to 288.  That is the most new highs Jan. 2018.  New lows dropped to 42.  Quite the straight up move.

The futures blasted through the 200 SMA.  Sometimes we get overshoots of that MA.  We will have to wait and see if the 200 holds on a pullback (if a pullback happens).

The green count is very overbought now.

The last leg down has  now been completely retraced.  Unfortunately this move has been entirely driven by hope headlines.  Hope for rate cut and no tariffs on Mexico.  I think the next rate move by the FED will be a cut, but I have no idea how soon that will happen.  I have no idea on the tariff situation.  The problem is that news driven moves are often retraced.  We could come in on Monday and hear the tariffs are on.  Alternatively we could be welcomed with some kind of deal and the threat of tariffs are removed.  Since I don't have a crystal ball to see into the future I have no idea what happens next week.

Have a great weekend.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.