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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?- 5/29/20

?- 5/29/20

?+ 5/29/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, June 7, 2019

Daily update 6/7

Worse than expected unemployment data (remember bad data is good for a rate cut) drove today's buying.


SPX crossed above the 50 SMA.  Breadth was +71%.  New highs spiked up to 288.  That is the most new highs Jan. 2018.  New lows dropped to 42.  Quite the straight up move.


The futures blasted through the 200 SMA.  Sometimes we get overshoots of that MA.  We will have to wait and see if the 200 holds on a pullback (if a pullback happens).


The green count is very overbought now.

The last leg down has  now been completely retraced.  Unfortunately this move has been entirely driven by hope headlines.  Hope for rate cut and no tariffs on Mexico.  I think the next rate move by the FED will be a cut, but I have no idea how soon that will happen.  I have no idea on the tariff situation.  The problem is that news driven moves are often retraced.  We could come in on Monday and hear the tariffs are on.  Alternatively we could be welcomed with some kind of deal and the threat of tariffs are removed.  Since I don't have a crystal ball to see into the future I have no idea what happens next week.


Have a great weekend.

Bob 

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