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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?- 5/29/20

?- 5/29/20

?+ 5/29/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, June 17, 2019

Daily update 6/17

Somebody wake me up when the market decides to move again.


The volume continues to decline.  There is still no selling pressure to speak of.  Breadth was +53%.  New highs were good at 159.  New lows continue to be oddly high at 74.  SPX remains constructive above the 50 SMA.


The futures continue to hold the 20 SMA.  They have not lifted off of it yet though.


The green count dropped below 50 which indicated the short term overbought condition has been worked off.  In a strong rally that will sometimes bring the buyers out again.

Wednesday is the next FED meeting and often the market gaps up the day before.  I heard one guy trying to set the expectation the FED would cut rates and the market would go down if they don't.   I don't see anyway in the world they cut rates and I don't think anybody expects them to.  However, the statement will be highly scrutinized for clues how soon they might cut.  The recent data is still showing some weakening so backtracking to a more hawkish stance seems very unlikely.  That leaves us waiting to see if they will be dovish enough to make the market happy.  That I can't answer.  However, nobody seems worried about it judging by the lack of any real selling pressure.  So we wait until something causes investors to do something with a little more enthusiasm than the last few days.

Bob 

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