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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Daily update 6/13

A little more buying.


The market gapped and the sellers came out shortly after the open.  The selling pressure was mild again and there were plenty of dip buyers around at a higher level than yesterday.  Breadth was +64%.  New highs came in at 127.  New lows dropped down to 43.


The 20 SMA is nearly up to price now.  When it gets there it could slap price higher once again.

The market is still consolidating the recent gain.  The underlying bid appeared stronger today than yesterday.  I don't know if that means the profit takers are getting weaker or if it was just overnight news making bulls slightly more ambitious.  Unless SPX closes back below the 50 DMA the bears do not have much to talk about.

There is one thing that worries me.  I keep hearing people suggesting the FED has figured out how to prevent recessions.  I think that is dangerous thinking.  The U.S. has avoided recessions largely due to natural disasters.  In 2012 the economy was getting quite dicey and along came hurricane Sandy.  The fires, floods and hurricanes just kept on coming.  Hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.  Natural disasters are bullish for the economy and we have had some bad ones during this expansion.  There really was no FED magic or economic miracle needed.  People seriously underestimate just how much affect these things had on the economy.  They are becoming very complacent about the economy as a result and will likely be very surprised when a recession comes to fruition.  It will some day.

Bob

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