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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Daily update 5/4

From last night:


"Who knows what will be tweeted overnight these days that will affect the market.  If nothing bad comes out tonight maybe we get a bounce tomorrow.  There was a FED speaker out today talking about the possibility of a rate cut.  That was mostly ignored today, but might bring in some buyers tomorrow."

Bring out the bulls it did.


The bulls took the ball and ran with it all day into the close.  Breadth was +79%.  New highs were good at 119.  New lows dropped way down to 20.  Volume was good. 


The futures are up through the 20 SMA.  The DI lines have a positive crossover.


The green count crossed above the red line. 

The bulls really liked the idea the FED might cut rates.  The market is saying there is a 63% chance of a cut at the July meeting.  The chance at the Sept. meeting is nearly 90%.  This is an interesting situation because QT is scheduled to go on until Sept.  I cannot imagine the FED cutting rates before they end QT.  Will the FED at the June meeting move up the schedule for the end of QT to July?  That would clear the path to a cut in Sept.  On the other hand, if the market rallies back near new highs will the FED do anything in June?  I think probably not.  Unless the data gets a good bit worse or the market tanks they might not change the schedule at all.

Today was obviously very strong.  The bulls still need to follow through in the days ahead.  With SPX reclaiming 2800 that very well could happen.  The market really likes the idea of rate cuts so don't tell anybody the last two times the FED cut rates the market ended up crashing 50%.  The bulls might do another test of the high on the hope of a rate cut.  Should the market roll over right here, for whatever reason, then 2650 would be the next logical target.  The Mexico situation is still unresolved so that may become a problem next week unless hope overrules any worry.  The bulls would probably like to see an absence of tweets from you know who for a while.

Bob

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