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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 10/29/20

? 10/28/20

?- 10/30/20

Short term

Dn 10/26/20

Dn 10/27/20

Dn 10/26/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, May 3, 2019

Daily update 5/3

Bulls strike back.


The market gapped up on news that Berkshire Hathaway bought AMZN stock and a good jobs report.  The buyers kept working through the day.  Breadth was a super strong +75%.  SPX closed just fractionally below the high close.  Volume was kind of light.


The futures sprung off the 50 SMA.  They came within 1 point of completely retracing the FED induced move down.  Next week we will see if they keep on going.


The green count recrossed 50.  It remains well below overbought giving the market room to keep rising.

R2000 had a solid break out above the Feb. high.  I am sure that was on the back of the strong employment report today.  We will have to see if there is any follow through.  There is definitely complacency around.  Whether that complacency is a problem though is hard to say.  Until something comes along that causes more serious selling, it does not matter.  There are things that could cause a problem like the global economy getting worse again or trade negotiations with China falling apart.  However, I don't know if either of those will happen.  I can say that commodity prices have turned down over the last month which could be a sign of economic weakness, but we will need a little more time to determine that.



Have a great weekend.

Bob

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