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Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Daily update 4/3 Pouring Cold Water On The Excitement Around Foreign Economic Data

More upside early in the day on more positive trade comments.  There was some fairly heavy selling shortly after 12 PM that lasted until late in the day.  There was a decent rebound into the close. 

SPX closed fractionally above the Jan. 2018 high.  It was slightly below the open though.  Breadth was +56%, but was +69% early in the day.  New highs were 162.  New lows were stable at 14.  It is still inconclusive whether SPX clearly takes out that Jan. high or not.

The futures moved up overnight on trade news.  They are up a few points from the 4PM close at the moment.

I find it interesting how the market latches on to anything even a little bit positive while ignoring all the bad stuff.  I think people are expecting Q1 to be a trough in earnings with a better second half of the year.  I am not smart enough to know if that will happen or not.  I am not sure anybody else is either.  Sometimes the market guesses.  Sometimes it guesses right and sometimes it guesses wrong.  It has guessed wrong both on the upside and on the downside many times over the years.  The breadth data suggests SPX should make new highs.  The economic data suggests the global economy is still weakening and may be getting near stall speed which would be real trouble for the market.  Will the global economy turn up or will it drag earnings and stocks down again?  This will probably be a very interesting earnings season.

This is a pretty good look at data from around the world.  Pouring Cold Water On The Excitement Around Foreign Economic Data


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