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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Daily update 4/24

Pause day.


SPX got fractionally above yesterday's high, but the bulls did not keep pushing.  Breadth was slightly negative.  New highs were stable at 131.  New lows picked up slightly to 26.  Nothing new here.


The futures are not telling us much either.


The green count was up a tad.  It remains below 50, but above the red line.  Pretty non committal
 here.

The markets ignored worse than expected business confidence data from Germany today.  It is not clear to me if the global data is going to show the turn around so many people expect or not.  I heard more talk of a melt up.  I find that kind of curious since the market already melted up to get here.  It is pretty hard to imagine the market just keeps going without some kind of consolidation or pullback.  I also question whether the market would melt up until we can see the global economic data has turned the corner.  The fate of the market from here could rest upon what happens with the global economy.  I heard that the Chinese government has said they have no more plans for stimulus.  I guess that means they believe the worst is over for their economy for now.  That would explain why they seem to have backed off on what they were agreeing to in the trade talks.  Whether they end up making a deal remains to be seen.  That probably would not matter if the global economy actually picked up speed again.  I think some patience is needed here.

Bob

1 comment:

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