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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

? 3/31/20

Intermediate

Dn 4/3/20

Dn 3/20/20

? 5/8/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Daily update 4/2

The Jan. 2018 SPX high was eclipsed by .03 points. 


Not a real strong day by any means.  Breadth was -53%.  New highs dipped to 137.  New lows remained low at 14.  It was a late day push that got SPX above that Jan. high.  Then as soon as it did some selling started in.


The last few bars of the futures chart have closed in a narrow range.  Top or pause that refreshes?


The green count remains overbought.  There is a slight negative divergence developing on the intermediate indicator.  That is only important if the market decides to turn around in this area.

Now that SPX has reached that Jan. 2018 high there would be a really big head and shoulders top pattern should the market end up failing here.  Will the bulls keep on pushing and get SPX to a new high?  A lot has been noted how strong the first quarter was.  Since 1950 that kind of strength usually brings more strength over the rest of the year.  There is one difference this time though.  None of those instances since 1950 came after a Dec. meltdown like we had.  You might recall we had the worst Dec. since the 1930s.  This move is definitely a bounce back move and may not be predicting great things to come.  It remains to be seen what happens this earnings season.  That will probably determine the outcome here whether SPX makes new highs or not.

Bob

1 comment:

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