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Monday, April 15, 2019

Daily update 4/15 OECD total leading indicator

Low volatility ruled the day.

The market didn't do anything worth talking about.  Breadth was -52%.  New highs were good at 137.  New lows were stable at 22 which is a bit elevated this close to the high.

The futures are consolidating in a fairly tight range.

The green count slipped down to just above 50. 

The market appears to be waiting for more information before deciding whether to break out and move higher or not.  I guess the earnings will tell the tale eventually.

Last week it seemed like Mnuchin was talking about all the things China was agreeing to.  Which caused me to write on Friday "I am getting really suspicious of China because I keep hearing about them giving concessions in the trade negotiations.  That seems very odd unless they are getting very worried about their economy and tariffs."  What I heard today was a lot of backpedaling from Mnuchin.  This is not really all that surprising to me given I was shocked at what he was saying China had agreed to.  I don't think we are anywhere near close to a deal as we were being led to believe last week.

I have commented a number of times the global economy is the weakest it has been since the great recession ended.  This chart shows just how close to trouble we are.

This indicator is down to 99.1.  Crossing below 99 has always signaled a global recession was imminent or already in process.  I am not smart enough to know whether we will avoid a global recession or not.  The risk still seems to be there though.


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