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Friday, April 12, 2019

Daily update 4/12

Good economic news from China was the excuse for another gap up. 

SPX ran a little higher after the open for a few minutes.  However, most of the day was sideways.  Volume was elevated though.  Breadth was +60%.  New highs expanded to 150.  New lows were up a bit to 21.  Pretty straight up rally.

The futures popped up overnight then held on during the day.

The green count was up today, but is short of overbought.

SPX keeps marching higher, but most of the move lately has been on overnight gaps.  During the day there is not much buying or selling interest.  SPX also keeps leaving gaps behind.  That makes me wonder when they will get filled.  JPM was lauded for having a great quarter.  I did not really hear much else though.  I guess we will find or more next week.

The German government lowered their 2019 GDP estimate from 1% to .5%.  Since government estimates are always high this is like saying odds of a recession are high.  That news was totally ignored in favor of big loan growth in China.  I am getting really suspicious of China because I keep hearing about them giving concessions in the trade negotiations.  That seems very odd unless they are getting very worried about their economy and tariffs.  I also have seen auto sales data from China that is really, really bad.  I think there is still considerable risk to the global economic outlook.  The market seems to disagree with that assessment though.  We will have to wait for more data to settle that argument.

Have a great weekend.


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