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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Daily update 3/13

The bulls pushed SPX to a new rally high close.


For the third day in a row the market gapped up and held the gap.  Yes, that means there are now three open gaps just below where we are.  This is what I call an aggressive retest.  Those are prone to reversal so we will have to see what happens this time.  Intraday SPX got above the 3/4 high, but muddled around and eventually sold off a bit.  The breadth was +66%.  New highs expanded to a new rally high of 175.  New lows were stable at 16.


The futures got slightly above their 3/4 high intraday.  They are up a bit in after hours, but still below that 3/4 high now.


The green count crossed above the red line, but remains below 50.  This has a good ways to go before becoming overbought.  Alternatively, if the market reverses this is showing a big negative divergence.

The bulls have forced this market up by bidding the futures up overnight.  Now that we are at the recent highs this is the moment of truth.  To break out or not to break out.  That is the question.  I think the bulls are trying to push the market up in hopes they will get others to buy in and keep it going up.  I do not know if that will work.  Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.  There wasn't any buying interest today when the futures got above the 3/4 overnight high.  However, tomorrow is another day.  There is definitely a lot riding on this for the bulls.  This is the fifth time since the initial sell off from the bull market high that SPX has tried to conquer this area.  It is rare to get five attempts at anything in the market.  Usually three settles the matter and occasionally four.  There has been no retest of the low and now SPX just created three open gaps this week.  I really don't know if people are going to buy this or not.  Stay tuned.

Bob

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