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Thursday, February 7, 2019

Daily update 2/7 Oops: Low Interest Rates a “Factor” in Slowdown of Economic & Productivity Growth: NBER

Poor economic data reminded the market of the global slow down.

  • Japan's December Leading Index -1.2% month-over-month (last -0.7%) and Coincident Indicator -0.6% month-over-month (last -1.7%)

  • Expectations for growth in Germany were reduced to 1.1% from 1.8% while the eurozone growth forecast was lowered to 1.3% from 1.9%.
It looks like Japan, Germany, and France are either in recession or very close.  Italy and Spain are showing considerable economic weakness.  China has the slowest growth in over three decades.  India's central bank did a surprise rate cut (I presume because of economic weakness).

The volume increased quite a bit on today's down move.  Breadth was -67%.  New highs were stable at 59.  New lows picked up to 23. 

The green count fell considerably, but is still above 50.

As long as this rally has gone on this could be the start of some profit taking.  The bears need to see a close below today's low for a bit of confirmation though.  The bulls may not give up just yet.  Bear market rallies sometimes create slow roll over tops.  They suck in everybody before pulling the rug out.  There may be some more ups and downs before the final plunge to retest the low.  On the other hand, since SPX got within a few points of the 200 DMA the sellers may be ready to unload.  The news flow could determine the outcome.  That is hard to handicap ahead of time.  Be nimble and quick here. 

It is about time somebody spoke with a voice of reason.  Way to go NBER.   Oops: Low Interest Rates a “Factor” in Slowdown of Economic & Productivity Growth: NBER


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