If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Daily update 2/14

Investors got an unhappy retail sales report for Valentines day.

SPX opened below the 200 this morning, but dip buyers came to the rescue.  The buyers pushed SPX into the green, but ran into some resistance.  SPX traded sideways all afternoon, but sold off a bit going into the close like yesterday.  Breadth was slightly negative.  New highs dropped to 71.  New lows were stable at 8. 

The futures don't tell us much other than there is resistance up near today's high.

The bull pressure chart shows the short term lines getting close together.  The long term lines have gotten positive, but are not showing much strength yet. 

The short term market internals are still positive.  However, they are getting a little droopy.  I don't know if the market was truly worried about the poor economic data or not.  There were plenty of opinions coming out.  Some were like the data was no big deal while others said it was awful and we are all doomed.  I don't have an opinion on that yet.  I will wait and see what happens over the next two months.  I can see some softening in the U.S. in other data series though.  Nothing conclusive that a recession is imminent here.  Europe and Japan are different stories.  The risk of recession is high there.  They both could be in recession now especially if current data ends up getting revised lower.  In my mind risk in the U.S. exists until those major economies turn back up.  There is no sign of that happening yet.

I hear more and more optimistic tones from analysts.  The calls for a retest of the low are getting few and far between.  Given the technical condition of the market I think that is a bad sign.  That is exactly what bear market rallies do.  They make people think the worst is over then pull the rug out.  We do not have an all clear sign and the risk of at least a retest of the low is high.


No comments:


The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.