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Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Daily update 1/29

More consolidation.

SPX stuck its head above yesterday's high, but found a few sellers.  Breadth was +54%.  New highs were 51.  New lows dropped a bit to 17.  Both the industrials and the transports showed relative strength to SPX.  That might have been due to strength in MMM. 

The last two bars in the futures closed above the 200 SMA.  They are up from the 4 PM close I presume on AAPL earnings.  The question is will the market be able to make forward progress tomorrow on FED day.

The green count fell below 50.  The overbought condition has been worked off.  Since we are below the 200 DMA the bulls need to step in soon and give the market another shot in the arm or the risk of rolling over will increase dramatically.

Tomorrow is FED day and the market has a well documented drift higher going into a meeting.  That could have helped keep the market from tanking today despite some rather poor earnings news.  The FED is not likely to do anything tomorrow, but there could be a change in language that moves the market.  I feel like the market is reading Powell a little bit wrong.  I get the feeling many people think he folded to the will of the market.  What I keep hearing from him is that he is data dependent.  The economic data clearly shows the global economy slowing considerably.  The U.S. economy is showing some signs of slowing around the edges.  Based on the data a pause is truly warranted.  I don't think the move down in the market had anything to do with it.  Powell has said he does not care what the market does unless it becomes a systemic problem.  That is certainly not the case so far.. 


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