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Monday, December 24, 2018

Daily update 12/24 Here's why no Wall Street analysts believe stocks will suffer next year, despite a fear addled market

The market is delivering lots of coal in the stockings this year.

Early this morning they said on CNBC that the market has never been down more then 1% on Christmas Eve.  Looks like we broke that in spades.  Breadth was -73%.  New highs were super low once again at 3.  New lows came in at 1212.  What a smack down.

Oversold became more oversold again.  No sign of a turnaround yet.

The short term bull pressure red line is over 91%.  The only reading higher than that in history that goes back to 2000 was on 10/10/08.  The highest reading since 2009 was 87% in Aug. of 2011.  In both instances the market traded in a volatile trading range for weeks. There will be lots of sellers on every bounce for a while.  This is a nimble traders market.

The red count is almost up to 98%.  Amazing. 

The confidence of market participants has been destroyed and it will take quite some time to rebuild.  By that time people might realize the fundamentals have seriously deteriorated and there is no recovery.  The lack of people claiming we have started a bear market is really startling.  In years past we got more panic than this over a 5% pullback.  SPX hit the magical 20% off the high today and the VIX was only 36.  With a 19% pullback in 2011 the VIX climbed to 48.  One more sign of the lack of fear now.  That is the hallmark of the initial stage of a bear market.  Stocks decline but cause no panic early on.

SPX closed slightly below the May 2017 low.  It has wiped out 18 months of gains.  It ended today just 3 points above the weekly 200 SMA.  In this extreme oversold condition it seems possible we could get a bounce.  I would expect any bounce from here to only last a few days though.  There will likely be lots of ups and downs. 

Interesting article sent in by a friend (tnx Manny).  Here's why no Wall Street analysts believe stocks will suffer next year, despite a fear addled market  Among all the carnage on Wall Street none of the big firms are bearish for next year.  A pretty clear sign the bottom is nowhere near being in.

That is a lot of targets above 3000 for year end 2019.  Considering that we are having the worst Dec. since 1931 I would expect a little more respect for downside risk.  We got nothing in that department.  I believe this is a long way from being over.

In Daily update 1/26 The infamous sideline money I wrote:

"Sometimes I get what I call nagging feelings.  They don't always come to pass, but over the years a lot of them have.  Sometimes I can figure out why I think a certain way and sometimes I can't.  Ever since this bull market started I have had this nagging feeling that it would end without much warning.  I have been paranoid that the market would start what looks like a normal pullback and just keep on going trapping everybody that is long along the way.   I don't know that I can explain exactly why I have this feeling.  Part of it might be the expectation that the real trouble that causes the next bear market is likely to originate overseas.  Maybe I worry for nothing.  Time will tell.  I just wanted everybody to understand why I obsess over figuring out the bull market top.  I am convinced the next bear market is not going to be a pleasant experience."

Maybe I didn't worry for nothing.  At least the market made a clear bull market top.  I was worried it would not.

Merry Christmas all.  If you don't celebrate Christmas now I hope that one day you will understand the Truth, see the Light, and be able to find the Way.


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.