If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

? 3/31/20

Intermediate

Dn 4/3/20

Dn 3/20/20

? 5/8/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, December 21, 2018

Daily update 12/21

More selling.


That looks like a nice 3 day volume climax type low.  Today was option expiration day and there was some rebalancing going on that helped the volume.  It still could be good for an oversold bounce.  The breadth was -77%.  New highs were 2.  New lows were 1015.  Notice the lower double top pattern from a few weeks ago.  I should have mentioned it, but I really did not expect the market to tank like this with it being Dec.  It figures the one time I didn't point it out it comes to fruition.  Everything about this chart is screaming bull market top.


There was a big bounce early in the day when the FED's Williams kind of walked back Powell's tough rhetoric.  However, the bears showed up and hammered the market.  Price is extended.  Not much else to say about this chart.


The green count fell to .76.  Less then 1 percent of SPX stocks are short term bullish.  Pretty tough to get any more oversold.  The intermediate indicator collapsed.  Should we bounce here this low is highly likely to be tested down the road.

This looks like we might finally have a short term volume climax bottom.  TRIN ended the day at 2.  It is too bad it was not 4 or 5 that would indicate some panic.  However, 2 can be enough to cause a bounce.  Hopefully the big boys got their portfolio adjustments done and the market will have a little bounce next week during the holidays.   

I am surprised at how relaxed everybody is on TV.  I heard Josh Brown say when the volatility rises like this it is best to increase equity exposure in 401Ks.  He is usually somewhat cautious when price is below the 200 DMA.  Today he seemed to be in the full bull camp.  People that were pointing out the poor technical position all seem to think it will all blow over in the first quarter next year.  This is so typical of a bull market top.  Very few see it.  This is about as clear as a bull market top can get technically.


Have a great weekend all.  Remember the reason for the season.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.