If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?- 5/29/20

?- 5/29/20

?+ 5/29/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, December 17, 2018

Daily update 12/17

Test of the Feb. low.


The market gapped down and tested the 12/10 low.  That brought out some buyers into the noon hour.  SPX got slightly green, but then the sellers pounced.  SPX dipped slightly below the Feb. low before bouncing at the end of the day.  Breadth was -85%.  New highs dropped down to 6.  New lows spiked up to 850.  That was the highest since back at the 2016 low.  Volume was elevated, but not the highest we have seen in this sell off.


The futures busted support and headed all the way down to the Feb. low.  They found some buyers down there though.


The red count is really oversold now.

I heard Bob Pisani on CNBC sound pretty exasperated today.  He said the volume was not all that high, but there was a lack of buyers.  He mentioned people have been buying when the market got oversold, but have not been rewarded.  I believe worries about the credit markets and the global economy are causing the problem.  Even though the U.S. economy has been good so far it also has cracks.  I think the FED will raise rates again on Wed., but will give a signal of some kind of pause.  That could spark a bounce.  I think they have been giving signals to support that idea. 

The market is oversold at key support.  We are also in the last half of Dec.  Hopefully investors got their hedging and selling out of the way today.  There was no sign of panic that I could see.  I also heard one of the regulars on CNBC talk about the lack of panic needed to make a good bottom.  I believe today confirmed we are in a bear market.  While the market may bounce from here I think it is now inevitable that the Feb. low will break.  That will surely cause a cascade down.  I think that won't happen until next year, but there is no law the market has to bounce here.  That is just my best guess with seasonality and the oversold condition.  I don't see anything that looks like we are making a long lasting bottom.  It looks like the great unwind of leverage is beginning.  With all the leverage in the system caused by the FED's ultra low interest rate policy it will be a very ugly unwind.  Next year is not going to be fun for bulls.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.