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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, December 10, 2018

Daily update 12/10

Test of the Oct. low.


That green support line is from the low of May 3rd.  This looks like a good test of the Oct. intraday low.  SPX got down there and failed to crash.  It paused for a while which emboldened some buyers to step in.  The breadth was -66%.  The rebound was led by big cap tech.  QQQ was up over 1%.  New highs were 11.  New lows were down a bit from Friday at 543.  The bulls still need to follow through on the upside, but this is a reasonable looking double bottom.


The futures made a nice bounce off the low, but have not done enough to even turn the price bar white yet.  The bulls need to show up again tomorrow to put in a short term bottom.


The red count turned down from oversold.  There is a sizable positive divergence in the intermediate indicator. 

The stage is set for a short term bottom and end of year rally.  The bulls just need to show up and get the upside going.  On Friday I heard the FED's Bullard talk about it might be a good time to pause in the rate hike campaign.  He will be a voting member next year.  That made me wonder if he was sent out to telegraph that on Wed. the FED will hike then pause. Maybe Powell will give some talk about being data dependent and not on a schedule for hikes.  Hard to say, but maybe that idea was floating around in some investor's minds today.  The market rallied significantly on the thought that Powell might be less hawkish.  If that becomes reality it could drive some buying.  It is really up to the bulls now.  A close above today's high would greatly increase the odds of a short term bottom.  The alternative would likely be another mini crash if we get below today's low.

Bob

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