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Friday, November 30, 2018

Daily update 11/30

Optimistic headlines over something happening with China at the G20 meeting this weekend drove the bulls to do some more buying.

SPX closed less then 2 points below the 200 SMA.  Breadth was +51%.  Yet another weak breadth day relative to the size of the move up.  New highs 57.  Oddly new lows spiked up to 246.  Internals still aren't particularly good.

The futures have a confirmed break of the 100 SMA.  They are still below the 200 SMA.

The green count crossed above 50.  It remains below overbought levels though.

The last three days have all been driven higher by headlines.  First it was Powell.  Then it was optimistic comments on trade with China.  Therein lies the problem.  News headline driven moves are so often eventually retraced.  Is all this optimism justified or misplaced?  It is possible anything positive from the G20 meeting like Trump agreeing to hold off more tariffs may already be discounted.  If things get tense and the tariff war gets ratcheted up then the downside looms large.  Monday will be interesting.


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