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Monday, November 26, 2018

Daily update 11/26 History Says FANG Feast Is Finished

SPX closes above the high's of the last three days.

The market gapped up this morning and held up all day.  There was some late day buying that got SPX above the recent highs.  Breadth was +62%.  New highs were 15.  New lows ended up at 143.

The futures ended regular hours above the 20 SMA.  After the close they tumbled back below that line.  There are green bars again.  The last time we had a green bar the sellers showed up and killed the bounce attempt.  I don't know if it will be different this time or not.

The red count is still above 50.  The bulls need to prove themselves.

The bulls generated a nice bounce today, but have not done enough to turn the market around yet.  They need to show up again.  The VIX is back below 20 again with SPX still below the 200 DMA.  With the exception of 2016 that has meant we are in a bear market.  That doesn't mean the market can't bounce from here, but it does mean the market might not bounce just because it looks like it could.  I happen to hear Ralph Acampora on CNBC.  He is a very famous technical analyst if you don't know of him.  He mentioned there are a lot of broken charts and it is important for the indexes to make new highs.  That is a sentiment I share.  You might recall I complained about the rally to new highs off the Feb. low.  The lack of technical strength made it look like a terminal up move.  Now we have the market acting like it is in a bear market.  It is definitely possible.  This is a seasonally bullish time of year so a rally could certainly happen, but it might be a bounce to a lower high.  Tomorrow will be interesting to see if the bears show up to sell today's up move or if the bulls come out to keep the upside pressure going.

Pretty interesting comparison to 2000.  History Says FANG Feast Is Finished


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