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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

? 3/31/20

Intermediate

Dn 4/3/20

Dn 3/20/20

? 5/8/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, November 19, 2018

Daily update 11/19 SPY option data

Worries over AAPL cutting back on IPhone orders brought out tech sellers again.


SPX made a new low close for the current pullback, but did not close below the lows of the last two trading days.  Breadth was -71%.  New highs increased to 47.  New lows were up some to 229. 


The futures tested down into the same area they found support last week.  Instead of breaking down they bounced.  Lets zoom in to the 60 minute chart of intraday data.


The bulk of the price damage was done by about 12 PM.  The afternoon had lots of ups and downs but was essentially sideways.  This is the kind of pattern I mentioned last week I would rather see then a V bottom bounce.  This may be a consolidation to lower prices, but if the market reverses here it might have a chance to bounce for more then a day or two.


The red count shot up some, but remains below 50. 


The 270 strike has enough puts that might explain the attempted support in this area.  The real put support is down at 260.  If the market breaks down here that seems like a likely target which would coincide with a test of the Oct. low.

SPX is trying to find support around here.  The question is will it be successful or not.  I think the bulls still have a chance to generate a Thanksgiving week bounce.  Further selling below the lows of the last four days will shift the odds to a test of the Oct. low sooner rather then later.  One disturbing thing is the action of the TRIN.  It was below 1 again all day despite the sizable move lower.  That happens much more often in a bear market then in a bull.  Despite the sizable sell off from the market top I can't detect any panic in the air.  They have put a few people on air on CNBC that are cautious, but I can't recall hearing an outright bear.  They also constantly remind me how good the fundamentals are.  The trouble with that is the good fundamentals only apply to the U.S.  The rest of the world is not so good.  Japan and Germany even had negative GDP prints.  The way this sell off has unfolded is definitely different then what happened in Feb.  That one acted like a bull market panic.  This one is not.  Be aware the market may be transitioning slowly into a bear.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.