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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Daily update 11/13

Oil seemed to be the problem today.


The bulls showed up this morning, but were met with sellers.  The dip buyers managed to keep the market from crashing again.  SPX closed right at yesterday's low.  Breadth was -51%.  New highs dropped way down to 27.  New lows were up slightly to 145.  SPX did not confirm a break of the 20 SMA.  I guess that keeps their hopes alive to continue the bounce.  Some people are talking about a possible inverse head and shoulders developing.  I can see that, but I have no idea what the odds are of that playing out.  The market might need a closer retest of the low.


The futures did not confirm a break of the 50 SMA. That keeps the bulls hopes for a bounce alive.


The green count fell further, but remains above the red line.  At the risk of being repetitive that keeps the hopes of a bounce alive.

Today seemed to be adding to the consolidation that started forming mid day yesterday.  SPX tried to break down below yesterday's low a few times, but buyers stepped in.  Rally attempts were sold into.  If the bulls engineer a bounce from here I suspect it will run out of steam at the 50 DMA.  If we keep falling there could be SPY option support around 270. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.