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Thursday, November 1, 2018

Daily update 11/1

Bulls come out again.

SPX closed above yesterday's high.  Small caps outperformed today.  Breadth was +72%.  New highs were 29.  New lows dropped to 73.  So far so good on the bounce.

The futures touched the 50 SMA late in the day.  They are down about 11 points from the 4 PM close now.  That is likely because of AAPL being down 6% after earnings.  I don't know how that will affect things tomorrow.  As long as the futures remain above the 20 SMA the bounce remains alive.

The green count shot up to almost overbought levels today.  That is some thrust.  Usually a thrust that strong will see some follow in the short term in a bull market.  In a bear market strong thrusts often get sold into.

The bulls are trying to grab hold of the market.  Today's strong breadth and the strong thrust in the green count on the red/green chart suggests there should be more upside in the days ahead.  Another thing that might come into play is the FED.  Since the FED started hiking rates the market has pulled back after increases, but went up after FED meetings with no hike.  The FED meets next Wed. after the election.  All that sounds good for bulls.  Now the potential problem.  The VIX closed below 20 while SPX was still below the 200 DMA.  You might recall I noted in the blog back in early 2016 that in the entire history of the VIX that meant we were in a bear market.  Just like nearly every other time I point something out in the blog it then does not work.  In Feb. of 2016 the VIX dropped below 20 while SPX was still well below the 200 DMA.  As we now know there was no bear market.  So now I have to deal with this situation.  Was today a sign we are in a bear market or will it be another failure?  This all makes my head hurt!


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