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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?- 5/29/20

?- 5/29/20

?+ 5/29/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 4/20/20

Up 4/22/20

Up 4/17/20

Short term

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20

Up 5/20/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Daily update 10/25

Good earnings brought out a pack of buyers.


The market gapped up and kept on going until very late in the day.  SPX was briefly above the 10/11 low before some selling kicked in.  Breadth was +70%.  New highs were 12.  New lows dropped to 297.  Interesting volume pattern.  The volume yesterday saw a slight decrease from the 10/11 low.  Today's rebound saw nearly as much volume as yesterday and well more then the 10/12 rebound day.  This chart looks capable of supporting a decent bounce.  The trouble may be the earnings that came out after the close.


As I write this the futures are down 36 points from the 4 PM close.  GOOG and AMZN had very negative reactions.  With the futures down this much there probably were others as well.  Who knows where they will be by morning though.


The red count dropped, but remains near oversold levels.

The SPX chart looks decent for a bounce.  Where the futures will be by the open is anybody's guess.  There could be better reports before the open that helps the bulls.  As long as we don't close below today's low the bulls will have a chance to rally the troops. 

I wonder if this comment from the BOJ was aimed at the FED.

  • Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said that trying to burst an asset bubble with tighter monetary policy could tip an economy into a serious recession.  
History shows all bubbles pop whether helped by a central bank or not.  

More signs of the struggling global economy.

  • Germany's ifo Institute noted that growing uncertainties will likely prevent the German economy from reaching the 0.6% growth forecast for the fourth quarter, but the GDP growth forecast for 2018 was left unchanged at 1.7%.

 Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.