If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Daily update 10/18 But what if it is the start of a bear

Sellers reappear.


SPX sold down below the 10/16 low and below the 200 SMA.  Dip buyers came to the rescue and got the close just at the 200.  Breadth was -74%.  New highs were 7.  New lows picked up to 245. 


The futures ended up below the 20 SMA.  However, there was a significant bounce off the lows.


Despite the move down the red count dropped below 50.

SPX closed above the 10/16 low as well as the 200.  I think that keeps the door open for the bounce to continue.  I don't know if the bulls will step through that door though.  It is not clear to me if this was a bump in the road or the start of a retest.  I have mixed signals here.  Breaking today's low should continue lower for the retest.  If the bulls show up in the morning maybe today's late day bounce keeps bouncing.

Last night I highlighted an article saying why it is unlikely we are starting a bear market.  I have to say that what the article said about the economic data is generally true.  The problem we have today is the global economy, not the U.S. economy.  The rest of the world is in a synchronized slow down.  Their stock markets and industrial metals prices seem to confirm that as true.  Even so that might not be terrible if the global economy turns back up.  However, there is no word from ECRI saying their long lead indexes have turned up.  In the U.S. the auto and housing sectors have already started to slow.  If the global economy starts to drag on the U.S. our economy could slow faster than people expect.  The most troublesome thing I see is that global financial stocks are not acting well.  It isn't just XLF that is in poor shape.  It will take a while and lower prices to confirm we are in a bear market.  Maybe we see strength come in and the indexes make new highs and clear the air.  What if that does not happen?  Time to be vigilant and watch closely.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.