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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, October 15, 2018

Daily update 10/15

Teeter totter. 


More money out of big gap tech.  Some went into small caps this time.  Breadth was +56%.  New highs were a pitiful 9.  New lows dropped to 203.  Volume dropped way off today.  Intraday there were three waves of buying and four waves of selling.  The sellers were active going into the close. 


The red count has turned down a bit.  It remains oversold.  The intermediate indicator has not been this low since the early 2016 low.  Most of the time there is some kind of double bottom price structure involved with the final price low.  The time period involved can vary greatly from a week to several weeks.  True V bottoms like Oct. 2014 also happen occasionally.  I don't think that will happen this time as that sharp sell off was due to ebola fears.

I think it unlikely we V bottom right back to new highs, but otherwise I have no idea how this will play out.  It may depend on what companies say about the future in their upcoming earnings reports.  Before the market can mount any real rally big cap tech will have to play along.  Today QQQ was down 1.3%.  A successful retest of Thursday's low could bring about a bounce.  A failure of such a test could cause another mini cascade lower.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.