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Thursday, September 13, 2018

Daily update 9/13

Upside follow through.

Another big cap supported move.  Breadth was barely positive.  New highs increased to 135, but new lows remained high at 78.  Volume increased considerably.  With breadth so weak today I am not sure that is a positive.  Hard to say.

The futures have climbed above the upper channel line.  Will they be able to stay out there?

The green count recrossed the red line.  It remains below 50.

The futures ended the regular session 5 points above the open.  The bulls won the day on an increase in volume.  That sounds good.  However, the high number of new lows and barely positive breadth somewhat tainted the results.  In addition XLF, R2000, and IYT were slightly red.  We are not seeing strong buying conviction here.  I think the trade situation is holding back money managers at least somewhat.  I can understand that.  I don't think the situation with China will be easily resolved.  Trump doubled down on that with a tweet today saying something about him not being under any pressure to make deal while noting China's stock market is down big time.  At some point this could end up haunting the market.  However, the old saying "it does not matter until it matters" applies.  We might wake up some day and it matters.  When or if that happens is unknown.  Just looking at price it would seem SPX should still go higher and retest the recent high.  A  number of global indexes appear to be making oversold bounces.  That could help get the futures off to a positive start if the rest of the world's markets are up overnight.  I still don't see the market as getting its act together to make a big sustained push higher.  There is always something wrong on every positive day.  Its like the engine is not firing on all cylinders.  The cylinders that aren't firing keep changing from day to day though.  It is peculiar action with SPX at new highs.


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