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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Daily update 8/7

Some investors were selling into strength today.


SPX made the second highest close ever, but with a very narrow intraday range.  Breadth was +63% at 9:45 AM, but ended the day at +51% even though SPX closed above the open.  That signals some slow deliberate hitting the bids on strength.  This was bound to happen as SPX approached the old high.  New highs picked up to 118.  New lows were up a tad to 39.


The futures are still above the upper channel line.


The green count crossed above 50.  However, the last two times that happened it turned back down as the market pulled back a little.  Maybe it will be different this time, but I can't see anything that would indicate that.

While the sellers did not take the market down today they were active.  SPX has a bit of a toppy looking bar.  If tomorrow is down then we could have another short term top.  A rally on weak internals like this one usually ends up getting retraced.  The pattern started when SPX crossed 2800.  At some point in the not too distant future I would expect a pullback to that area.

Since 1950 the second year of the presidents term has seen an average draw down of 17%.  It usually happens sometime between June and Oct.  The 1994 bottom was shallow and happened in the spring though.  However, there was a retest with a higher low in the fall.  It is possible the Feb. bottom is the low for the year, but history suggests there are pretty good odds of a retest in the next couple of months.  Those bottoms set up the strongest year of the presidential cycle year three.  The average gain is something like 30%.   I think the only way that happens this time is if the global economy picks up again.  It is too early to tell on that yet.


Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.