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Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Daily update 8/22

Only a minor bit of follow through selling from yesterday afternoon. 

The dip buyers stepped in shortly after the open and held the market above that early low the rest of the day.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs were down some to 105.  New lows were up a bit to 27.  Volume was very light so neither buyers or sellers were very ambitious.

Yesterday ended with a bearish engulfing bar on the futures.  Overnight there was some further selling, but none of the next three bars closed below the bearish bar low.  The dip buyers are doing their thing.

The green count dropped back below 50.  The red count is still quite low so there are quite a few stocks with neutral price bars at the moment.  This is still positive.

It looks like yesterday afternoon's selling was largely about politics.  Today investors decided the political situation did not mean the end of the world so buy the dip.  The VIX actually was down considerably today even though SPX was slightly in the red.  I wonder if that is an early warning the VIX divergence I mentioned last night is going to get resolved with SPX going up.  I think the most likely cause of a reversal to the downside would be from trade war fears rising again.  For the moment everybody seems to be talking so the odds of that might be pretty.  With the rest of the world faltering the U.S. market could see some money come in from overseas as a safe haven kind of play.  The market has been sideways long enough that there is surely some sideline money that might be teased into the market on a successful break out by SPX.  As I said last night those VIX divergences often get resolved with a nice short term move.  I can see fuel either way here.  The bulls get the benefit of the doubt for now.  Let see what happens.


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