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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Daily update 8/21 SPY option data

SPX makes new high intraday, but sold off going into the close.


SPX stuck its head .5 points above the Jan. high.  There was enough resting sell orders to overcome the buyers at that point.  Breadth was +62%.  New highs were 162.  New lows dropped down to 19.  Volume picked up a bit over yesterday. 


The futures popped out over the upper channel line, but came right back in.  The day ended with a bearish engulfing bar.  The futures are down about 10 points from the 4 PM close at the time of this writing.  I have no idea why.


The green count picked up a bit more, but is still not overbought.

Important put support comes in at the 280 strike.  No surprise there.  The important call strikes are 285, 290, and 292.  SPY is above that 285 strike already.  We will see if it can stay there.  These are not huge numbers yet.

At the peak in early Aug. the VIX was down around 10.5.  Today it was just above 12 at it's low.  That is a sizable divergence.  I see VIX divergences from time to time, but I have never been able to figure out how to tell if they are negative or not.  Sometimes SPX keeps climbing and the VIX implodes.  Sometimes SPX sells off and the VIX explodes.  It often leads to a big move though.  The VIX divergence could mean this afternoon's sell off is the start of something bigger.  But then again, maybe not.  If SPX can break out there could be a sizable short covering pop now. 

What happens now?  I have commented on the lack of quality of this rally a few times.  It is not hard to imagine this rally failing this retest.  It would not be surprising to see a higher high first.  Today tied the longest bull market ever.  The bulls have been pretty persistent buying the dip.  Would they give up here without breaking that record.  They need to get SPX to a new high another time.  We will just have to see what happens.  No prediction here.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.