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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Daily update 8/1 SPY option data

Welcome to Aug.


SPX tested yesterday's high and low, but ended up near the middle.  Breadth was -61%.  The big cap stocks held the market up today instead of dragging it down.  New highs were stable at 71.  New lows picked up considerably to 54.  Dip buyers are holding the market up, but we are lacking rally chasers.


The futures tested above the 20 SMA again, but were rebuffed.  They are still above the 50 SMA.  Still no clear cut direction.  Trapped by the MAs.


The lines came together again.  No clear sign here.

They have added quite a few puts at the 280 strike.  That could be one reason for support.  If broken it would likely become an acceleration point as delta hedging kicks in.  There could be some support at 277, 275 (moderate), and 270 (strong).  The calls don't show much resistance until the 290 strike and that is not all that significant.

The futures are trapped between the 20 and 50 SMAs as the bulls and bears fight it out.  I am leaning to the downside because the bulls never did anything with the break out over 2800.  Somewhere below 2800 there are probably a lot of stops with two weeks of people buying the break out.  The bulls need rally chasers to show up or the market is going to break down eventually.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.