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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Daily udpate 8/29

More positive trade  news, more rally.  I happen to catch CNBC showing the Canadian lead negotiator saying she was very positive on reaching a deal.  That brought on the buyers.


The beat goes on.  Sellers on vacation.  Buyers coming in on every bit of positive trade news.  Breadth was +58%.  New highs were 146.  New lows were up a bit to 34.  SPX is climbing further above the trend channel. 


The futures remain above the upper channel line.


The green count picked up a bit, but remains below overbought levels.  We have not had a good strong thrust in this indicator on this rally.  After the April low there were three strong bounces with the green count getting above the red line.  The mid May rally did not achieve that level.  In late June SPX slipped back below that mid May high before the rally resumed.  It is not clear exactly how strong this break out really is.


XLF still bothers me.  I saw a headline that financial companies made record profits of over $60 billion.  Still XLF is well below the Jan. high.  Is this some kind of warning?

Sept. is going to be interesting when the bigs get back from vacation.  Will they sit, chase the market higher, or take some profits?  Will the mid term election pullback still happen?  The Dow is getting close to its Jan. high, but still has not reached it.  The transports made a slight new high, but went nowhere after that.  The SOX is also a little short of its prior high.  The VIX is refusing to break down below 12.  It was in the low 10s earlier in the month.  It looks like we will be going into Sept. with SPX overbought and some lingering questions about the strength of the SPX break out. 

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.