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Monday, July 9, 2018

Daily update 7/9

Test of June high.

SPX closed 2 points below the June high close and 7 points below the intraday high.  Breadth was +61%.  New highs were slightly below Friday's number at 127.  New lows dropped way down to 12.  This is an aggressive retest of the June high on light volume.  I do not know what the stats say about a retest like this, but I have seen plenty of them fail both up and down.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts here.

The futures rocketed nearly straight up.  Theoretically they could be launching a strong leg up that will test the Jan. high.  However, it could just be yet another move up to resistance that fails. 

The green count is getting close to overbought levels.  That may be a problem since SPX is getting into resistance.

The financials caught fire today.  JPM and WFC report Friday so today's move is likely a run up into their earnings.  What happens after that will be interesting.  Other rally attempts have fizzled.  The various sectors of the market are all over the place.  It is pretty hard to say the corrective activity we have seen this year has come to an end.  It seems more likely to me SPX will stay in its trading range a while longer.  There is normally a pullback of sorts into Oct. in mid term election years.  A top this summer would be in line with history.  For the moment lets just see how SPX deals with resistance.


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