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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Daily update 7/5

The bears took a couple of whacks at the market after a sizable gap up.  However, in the end the bulls pushed SPX above the morning peak and closed it near the high.


SPX closed slightly above Tuesday's high.  Breadth was +71% so buying was broad.  New highs picked up a bit to 77.  New lows came in at 36.  Internals are getting more positive.


The futures are creeping up towards the resistance area.  This looks like a 4th attempt to get through it.  The odds should be pretty good it will be successful.


The red count tumbled and the green count picked up nicely.  Another good day should generate a positive cross.


The bull pressure chart shows the short term lines getting a positive cross for the first time since the current pullback started.  The long term lines are still positive.  The intermediate lines are still negative, but not by much.


Both the 10 DMA lines and the McClellan oscillator got positive crosses today. 

The price action looks constructive on the chart and short term internals have turned positive.  That should indicate odds are good SPX has put in a short term bottom.  How far might SPX go on the upside if short term resistance is beaten?  The peak of the last rally was well above the upper Keltner 50 channel line (purple dashed line).  This pullback was caught around the 50 DMA.  So far SPX has not touched the lower channel line.  That setup often leads to a test of the prior high.  Assuming we continue higher without touching the lower channel line odds should be pretty good SPX tests the June high (2791).  What an idea.  A July rally just in time for earnings season.  Longer term it will probably be earnings reports that dictates what happens.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.