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Thursday, July 19, 2018

Daily update 7/19

Trade war fears surface as small caps outperform big caps.

SPX tested 2800 this morning and bounced.  However, it did not bounce strongly.  There is only a four point cushion now.  Breadth was +57%.  New highs were 78 and new lows were 37.  The volume picked up a bit today which does not seem good on a down day. 

The futures came back inside the channel this morning.  Usually when they come right back in like this they end up touching the lower channel line.  Occasionally they will get caught by the 20 SMA. 

The green count crossed back above 50.  That is a positive as long as it stays there for a bit.

They kept playing Kudlow's comments all day on TV.  That might have given some investors renewed worries about the trade situation.  They should have worries.  I do not understand the pundits they parade on CNBC.  They do not seem to understand the personalities involved at all.  My opinion remains the same.  We have two alpha males going head to head.  There will be a fight.  Both presidents believe they have the winning hand.  I don't see either China or the U.S. backing down any time soon.  Some day the market may realize this.

SPX held above 2800 again today.  The bulls need a thrust day to truly confirm the break out.  This messing around is not a confidence booster.  XLF wiped out yesterday's strong day.  The market is having trouble getting itself into gear to go up.  Will the bulls come to play again?


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