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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, July 13, 2018

Daily update 7/13

SPX tested above the March high, but closed slightly below it.


Volume was light once again.  Breadth was -51%.  New highs were 96.  New lows dipped a bit to 31.  Not exactly great internals considering SPX made the highest print since 2/5.  XLF closed slightly in the red along with IWM.  Extremely narrow rally today.


The futures remained outside the channel.  However, they are only 7 points above the 7/10 overnight high.  That is not a lot of progress.  The market appears to be losing some momentum.

 
The green count turned down a bit despite the up day.  There must have been some profit taking going on.  Notice the sizable negative divergence with the June high in the intermediate indicator.  This is important if the market turns back down instead of breaking out.  If the market turns back down from around here and the intermediate indicator drops back below 50 then the odds go up considerably that SPX will test the Feb. low. 

This does not look like a market that is preparing to blast off to me.  The various sectors are all over the place.  Lately copper and other metals have tanked.  Here is a look at Dr. Copper.


Financials around the world have sold off.  Here is a look at IXG the global financial ETF.


Most of the major stock markets around the world are much weaker then the U.S.  Here is a world ex U.S. ETF.


 It dipped below its Feb. low recently.   It bounced back a bit, but the test of that low is still ongoing. The global economy still appears to be slowing.  With commodity prices falling the way they have lately it may be about to slow at a faster rate. 

Next week is option expiration.  Normally that week has a bullish bias.  However, with the market  looking tired and SPX at what could be major resistance it could be a sideways choppy week. 


Have a great weekend.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.