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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Daily update 6/7 The Smart Moneys Bailing As Markets Become Too Complacent

Some rotation out of tech and small caps.


SPX retraced about half of yesterday's range before bouncing into the close.  Breadth was +51%.  New highs slipped a bit to 160.  New lows increased to 56.  The number of lows seem pretty high for this stage of the recovery.  Both QQQ and IWM saw considerable selling intraday.  The late day bounce lessened the damage.


The pullback in the futures stopped at the upper channel line.  That keeps the rally alive for now.


The green count turned down a bit, but remains above 50.

I have no idea what caused the rotation today.  Was it a one day thing or will there be more?  It is an important question and I don't have the answer.  It opened the door for COMPX to fail the break out to new highs.  That would set up a clear double top.  Since QQQ and IWM have clearly led this rally it would be pretty negative if they roll over here.  The rally in SPX has looked very tentative the entire way.  It might not take much selling in the leaders to make investors nervous.  Maybe the buyers will be back tomorrow and everything keeps going up.  Further downside would be troublesome.

An interesting look at the smart money index.  The Smart Moneys Bailing As Markets Become Too Complacent

The last two times the index dropped this much year over year a bear market followed.  This is obviously a small sample size, but there are no false predictions in over 25 years of data.  Maybe this time it will be wrong.  However, this is something to keep in mind with the way the market is acting.  Things are definitely not in gear like they have been in past years.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.