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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Daily update 6/14 Global Earnings Recession All But Certain As World Trade Weakens

Indecision.


SPX gapped up on news the ECB will not be raising rates until at least next summer.  However, they did announce a plan to cut their QE program in half in Sep. and terminate QE completely in Dec.  The bulls and bears took turns after the open all day.  At the end of the day SPX was slightly lower then the open.  Breadth was slightly positive.  New highs were stable at 97.  New lows picked up to 52. 


The futures held the 20 SMA all day.  They tried to launch off that line this morning, but the sellers showed up.


The green count slipped below 50, but remains above the red line.  The market has worked off the overbought condition. 

Early this morning SPX got above its price from just before the FED announcement.  It failed just like yesterday afternoon.  That suggests some investors that did not expect the fourth rate hike were selling when price got back to where it was.  They sold from lower highs in the afternoon.  There were plenty of dip buyers to absorb the selling today from the ECB news.  The question is will they be able to do that tomorrow.  I did not see any sign the selling was exhausted.  If SPX can close above today's high that would be a very positive sign.  I can't recall many people expecting that extra hike this year.  I think that move caught a lot of people off guard.  It remains to be seen if that means more selling. 

The tariff rhetoric is clearly picking up.  The market seems to be ignoring it for now.  However, it seems to me there will be more tariffs coming all around.  I get the feeling foreign leaders think Trump will back down.  I can't imagine where that idea comes from.  I have seen nothing in his character (observed over decades) that suggests that will be the case.  The U.S. has the least amount of tariffs in the world.  If other countries insist on increasing tariffs instead of moving toward actual free trade I think they will be in for a shock.  I believe Trump is completely comfortable with a trade war.  He thinks he can win it.  The market might not like that if it comes to pass.  I would also add that both Trump and Powell are much more comfortable with market volatility then Bernanke or Yellen were.  The FED put is much lower then it used to be.

I still have seen no sign from ECRI their long lead indexes have turned back up.  This article shows some trade data that backs up the idea the global economy is still slowing.  Global Earnings Recession All But Certain As World Trade Weakens

Bob


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.